New Listings Jump to Start 2025 as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Sales

Although sales were down 3.3% on a month-over-month basis in January, this was mostly the result of sales trailing off in the last week of the month

Meanwhile, the number of newly listed homes increased with an 11% jump compared to the final month of 2024. Aside from some of the wild swings seen during the pandemic, this was the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase in new supply on record going back to the late 1980s.

“The standout trends to begin the year were a big jump in new supply at an uncommon time of year, as well as a weakening in sales which only showed up around the last week of January,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “The timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause – uncertainty around tariffs. Together with  higher supply, this means markets that had been steadily tightening up since last fall are now suddenly in a softer pricing situation again, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.”

With sales down amid a surge in new supply, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.3% compared to readings in the mid-to-high 50s in the fourth quarter of last year. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were close to 136,000 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of January 2025, up 12.7% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average for that time of the year of around 160,000 listings.

“While we continue to anticipate a more active spring for the housing sector, the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner is a major dark cloud on the horizon,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others. If you’re looking to buy or sell a property in 2025, contact a REALTOR® in your area as the first step.”

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2025, up from readings in the high threes in October, November, and December. The long-term average is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market would be above 6.5 months.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.08%) from December 2024 to January 2025. (Chart B)

In fact, the National Composite MLS® HPI has barely budged in the last year, owing to  ongoing softness in B.C. and Ontario, which has been offsetting rising prices on the Prairies, in Quebec, and across the East Coast.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was similarly unchanged (+0.07%) compared to January 2024. That said, it was technically the first year-over-year increase since last March.

The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $670,064 in January 2025, up 1.1% from January 2024.

The next CREA statistics package will be published on Monday, March 17, 2025.
 

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry associations, representing more than 160,000 REALTORS® through 66 real estate boards and associations.

Further information can be found at http://CREA.ca/statistics. 

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@CREA.ca