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CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast

Ottawa, ON July 15, 2026  –  The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations.

Since CREA’s forecast in mid-April there have been developments in the economy and in housing markets across Canada. Inflation fears from high oil prices resulted in a jump in fixed mortgage rates in late March. These have since partially eased back down, and rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year have also now been mostly taken off the table, which should hearten both fixed- and variable-rate borrowers.

While high oil prices have benefitted specific regional economies, other parts of Canada are seeing the impact of negative population growth weigh on housing market activity more quickly than previously expected. A recovery in home sales appears to have taken hold beginning in May. This was led by Ontario, with a more muted increase in British Columbia and a mixed bag of ups and downs in other parts of the country.

Taken together, the national sales forecast for 2026 was revised slightly lower, reflecting the weak first half of the year, and slightly delayed start to the long-awaited recovery that should still result in a more active second half of the year.

This would be similar to the sales pattern that played out in both 2024 and 2025. Higher levels of activity are still expected across the board next year, with the Prairies and Ontario doing a little better than previously forecast, while Quebec and the East Coast are forecast to be slightly less active than expected earlier this year.

This remains in line with CREA’s long-standing expectation that activity would eventually begin to converge on longer-term trends in all provinces as critical external factors such as inflation, interest rates, and population growth/decline settle down following some of the wildest swings on record in the first half of the 2020s.

Some 463,336 residential properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026, representing a small 1.4% decline from 2025. The slight downward revision from the previous forecast, which had called for a modest annual gain, reflects a faster-than-expected slowdown in parts of Canada facing the dual headwinds of the sharp reduction in population growth and historic supply shortages, specifically Quebec and the East Coast. As a result, Ontario is now the only province forecast to see annual sales increase in 2026 compared to 2025.

The national average home price is forecast to rise by 1.1% on an annual basis to $686,710 in 2026, almost unchanged from CREA’s April forecast. The national figure in 2026 is the result of declines of less than 1% in B.C. and Ontario offset by ongoing but slowing price growth in other provinces. Standout provinces on the price side include Alberta, where prices turned a corner and resumed rising in the second quarter, and Newfoundland and Labrador which is Canada’s last remaining province in full-on seller’s market mode.

In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb 3.7% to 480,567 units, with gains in that same range across most provinces as expected slow but positive economic growth, stable interest rates, and stable or modestly rising home prices in most regions combine to bring more pent-up demand into the market. The number could be stronger if external factors don’t once again disrupt the spring market for a fourth straight year.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.1% from 2026 to $694,164 in 2027, again almost unchanged from CREA’s April forecast. Gains are expected to be held to below inflation pretty much across the board. This forecast would mark the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark.

Each quarter, CREA updates its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. CREA’s next forecast will be published on Friday, October 16, 2026.

The Quarterly Forecast data is available to download in Excel (.xlsx) format.

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About the Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry associations. CREA works on behalf of more than 160,000 REALTORS® who contribute to the economic and social well-being of communities across Canada. Together they advocate for property owners, buyers and sellers.

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

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